Paleo-earthquake evidence and earthquake recurrence for Düzce fault, Turkey

Paleoseismological trenching was performed along the Düzce fault providing some preliminary insight about its seismogenic behavior. Dating based on radiocarbon analysis of peat samples collected from trenches and suggested seven earthquakes have occurred since 1740 BC. Integrating date constraints events exposed in suggests a periodical earthquake recurrence model. According to linear sequential event serial that has minimum misfit determined by considering probability curve limits sample dates, interval is between 384 460 years (or possibly AD 394 400). A also calculated for last (1999 earthquake) distributions dates same serial. This probability-distribution-based method, similarly, predicted 1999 1933 2005 (±36 years) with 68% probability. After this verification, using it estimated next occurring 2328 2392. calculation, 391 ± 34 967 historical likely ruptured fault. Assuming an average slip 350 cm (the earthquake), rate be 8.7 11.2 mm/a.